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Reasons to buy Wyeth
- Misery loves company.
Reasons not to buy Wyeth
- Doesn’t come close to solving Pfizer’s near term need for late-stage pipeline drugs
- Major mergers in pharma almost always destroy shareholder value (Pisano, 2007)
- Fails to address lack of internal R&D productivity (i.e., not a “disease modifying” business move but rather, a superficial band-aid).
- Opportunity cost is too high; Pfizer could buy 10 innovative companies for the cost of 1 Wyeth (e.g., Shire, BioMarin, OSI, Allergan, Forest…) or, move into generics.
- Wyeth’s marketed / late-stage pipeline has issues: Protonix and Effexor lose patent protection by 2011, bifeprunox and Pristiq have been plagued by issues / slow uptake and will probably never reach the combined $4B in projected sales.
I would be astonished if this deal materialized.
———-UPDATE———–
Officially astonished.
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Eben is a highly caffeinated business development associate at a small, cash sensitive pharmaceutical company somewhere in Massachusetts. He enjoys cliche-less banter, compartmentalization, non-equilibrium thermodynamics and NPV analysis. Agree or disagree with what he's posted? He encourages comments.
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Eben is a highly caffeinated business development associate at a small, cash sensitive pharmaceutical company somewhere in Massachusetts. He enjoys cliche-less banter, compartmentalization, non-equilibrium thermodynamics and NPV analysis. Agree or disagree with what he's posted? He encourages comments.
If one were so inclined, one could follow him at any of these fine web 2.0 establishments:
Feel free to leave a comment below. Eben loves comments. You may also subscribe to comments through this RSS Comments feed or trackback here.
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January 26, 2009 at 8:41 am
[...] my last post, I gave five reason for Pfizer not to buy Wyeth and said I would be astonished ...