Image via WikipediaA little over a month ago, I wrote a post detailing how I thought the Bapineuzumab trial (which had just released phase 2 results) was a total loser.
It was, and still is, my contention that mAbs targeting APP, Tau, gamma secretase or the protein du jour in brain soup will not be effective or have an unacceptable risk/reward profile.
So it was of no surprise to me that the street, upon seeing the full results, was less than impressed and Wyeth and Elan took major hits in after hours trading.
The math is simple on this.
When a drug fails the primary endpoint, has tox/adverse event issues and the company begins data mining to find statistical significance…. SELL (or short, if that’s your game)!!!!
It couldn’t be simpler. Granted, trials like this don’t come along often. Especially ones with so much hype but when they do… there is a killing to be made. You don’t need an MD, MBA or PhD, just a little sense.
Personal investing aside, what does it say about Wyeth and Elan that they are totally comfortable continuing a few phase 3 trials after this result?
Wonder why drugs cost so much?
One reason: Big pharma has a gambling problem; they throw good money after bad and forget that the house always wins.
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Eben is a highly caffeinated business development associate at a small, cash sensitive pharmaceutical company somewhere in Massachusetts. He enjoys cliche-less banter, compartmentalization, non-equilibrium thermodynamics and NPV analysis. Agree or disagree with what he's posted? He encourages comments.
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